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Parma U20 vs Milan U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:00

Parma U20

PPG 1.72 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Milan U20

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-19.2%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-112.7%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 46.3% — — —

Over 3.5 20.3% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma U201.4

Milan U200.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA U20 · PPG 1.72

MILAN U20 · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Parma U20 (H) 47.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Milan U20 (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma U20 face Milan U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma U20 a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Milan U20 25%, so Parma U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Parma U20 and 0.9 for Milan U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma U20 are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.28 for Milan U20. This match finished 4-2.

Parma U20 vs Milan U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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