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Bukovyna vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 10:00

Bukovyna

PPG 2.69 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vorskla Poltava

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-14.8%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.6%1-18.6%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.9%2-17.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.2%3-14.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-13.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 84.7% 1.18 -27.2%

Draw 26.5% 18.2% 5.50 +27.5%

Away win 11.7% 7.7% 13.00 +31.3%

Over 2.5 46.0% 62.1% 1.61 -25.9%

Over 3.5 19.6% 40.7% 2.46 -31.1%

BTTS 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 2–0 16.9%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 3–0 10.2%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bukovyna1.8

Vorskla Poltava0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BUKOVYNA · PPG 2.69

VORSKLA POLTAVA · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.69) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Bukovyna (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -27.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +27.5%

Vorskla Poltava (A) 11.7%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bukovyna face Vorskla Poltava in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bukovyna a 62% chance, the draw 27% and Vorskla Poltava 12%, so Bukovyna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bukovyna and 0.5 for Vorskla Poltava (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bukovyna are averaging 2.69 points per game versus 0.77 for Vorskla Poltava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 6-0.

Bukovyna vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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