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Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 10:00

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.3%0-114.4%0-24.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.1%2-15.5%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 47.6% 2.10 -24.0%

Draw 38.7% 30.8% 3.25 +25.8%

Away win 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 46.5% 2.15 -24.5%

Over 3.5 7.2% 25.0% 4.00 -42.7%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 36% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.3%

#2 1–0 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen0.9

Pohang Steelers0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.50

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.0%

Draw 38.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +25.8%

Pohang Steelers (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Pohang Steelers in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 36% chance, the draw 39% and Pohang Steelers 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Daejeon Citizen and 0.7 for Pohang Steelers (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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