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FC Koln W vs Hamburger SV W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 10:00

FC Koln W

PPG 1.42 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hamburger SV W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.4%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.3%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.4%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 61.7% 1.62 -18.4%

Draw 26.1% 25.3% 3.95 +1.9%

Away win 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +2.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 34.4% 45.5% 2.20 -24.3%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Koln W1.9

Hamburger SV W1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KOLN W · PPG 1.42

HAMBURGER SV W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.42) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

FC Koln W (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -18.4%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.9%

Hamburger SV W (A) 23.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Koln W face Hamburger SV W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Koln W a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Hamburger SV W 24%, so FC Koln W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Koln W and 1.0 for Hamburger SV W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Koln W are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.00 for Hamburger SV W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-1.

FC Koln W vs Hamburger SV W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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