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Chernihiv vs Chornomorets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 09:00

Chernihiv

PPG 1.42 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Chornomorets

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-116.6%0-29.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-04.6%2-15.2%2-22.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.2%3-11.4%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% — — —

Draw 30.6% — — —

Away win 42.4% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 12.7% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.2%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 16.6%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 0–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chernihiv0.8

Chornomorets1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERNIHIV · PPG 1.42

CHORNOMORETS · PPG 1.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.42) vs Away GOOD (1.92)

Win probability 1X2

Chernihiv (H) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chornomorets (A) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chernihiv face Chornomorets in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chernihiv a 27% chance, the draw 31% and Chornomorets 42%, so Chornomorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Chernihiv and 1.1 for Chornomorets (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chernihiv are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.92 for Chornomorets. This match finished 2-2.

Chernihiv vs Chornomorets Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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