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Frosinone U20 vs Genoa U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 09:00

Frosinone U20

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Genoa U20

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.4%0-27.4%0-33.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.5%1-111.7%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 41.0% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 31.1% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.0%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frosinone U201.2

Genoa U201.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FROSINONE U20 · PPG 1.06

GENOA U20 · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Frosinone U20 (H) 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Genoa U20 (A) 41.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Frosinone U20 face Genoa U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frosinone U20 a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Genoa U20 41%, so Genoa U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Frosinone U20 and 1.6 for Genoa U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frosinone U20 are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.28 for Genoa U20. This match finished 2-2.

Frosinone U20 vs Genoa U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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