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Shenzhen 2028 vs G. Zhucheng Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 08:00

Shenzhen 2028

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

G. Zhucheng

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-111.2%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.4%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-17.9%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 40.0% 2.50 -3.5%

Draw 29.9% 36.4% 2.75 -10.7%

Away win 31.4% 37.0% 2.70 -15.2%

Over 2.5 45.8% 42.6% 2.35 +7.6%

Over 3.5 19.2% 23.8% 4.20 -11.6%

BTTS 52.3% 52.4% 1.91 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen 20281.2

G. Zhucheng1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN 2028 · PPG 1.25

G. ZHUCHENG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen 2028 (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -3.5%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.7%

G. Zhucheng (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen 2028 face G. Zhucheng in China - League Two on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen 2028 a 39% chance, the draw 30% and G. Zhucheng 31%, so Shenzhen 2028 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shenzhen 2028 and 1.1 for G. Zhucheng (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen 2028 are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for G. Zhucheng. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Shenzhen 2028 vs G. Zhucheng Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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