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Gwangju vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:30

Gwangju

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Gangwon

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

Away 71% chance

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-115.1%0-215.1%0-310.1%0-4+8.0%1 1-04.4%1-18.8%1-28.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.3%2-12.6%2-22.6%2-31.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% 10.0% 10.00 +15.0%

Draw 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Away win 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 2.5 51.4% 47.6% 2.10 +7.9%

Over 3.5 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

BTTS 48.2% 42.0% 2.38 +14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob48.2%

A 64% / xG 0.6-2.0 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.1%

#2 0–1 15.1%

#3 0–3 10.1%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 0–0✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju0.6

Gangwon2.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU · PPG 0.80

GANGWON · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

71%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju (H) 12.5%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +15.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

Gangwon (A) 63.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju face Gangwon in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju a 13% chance, the draw 24% and Gangwon 64%, so Gangwon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gwangju and 2.0 for Gangwon (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.67 for Gangwon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Gwangju vs Gangwon Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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