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Gimcheon Sangmu vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:30

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-112.8%0-27.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.3%2-17.1%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.2%3-12.5%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Draw 28.5% 30.8% 3.25 -4.4%

Away win 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Over 3.5 17.6% 27.0% 3.70 -20.9%

BTTS 51.0% 56.5% 1.77 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.0%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu1.1

Incheon Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 0.67

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.9%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.4%

Incheon Utd (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu face Incheon Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Incheon Utd 36%, so Incheon Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gimcheon Sangmu and 1.1 for Incheon Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Incheon Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Gimcheon Sangmu vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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