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Taian Tiankuang vs Nantong Haimen Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:30

Taian Tiankuang

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Nantong Haimen

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.3%0-113.8%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.2%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.6%2-15.6%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 44.4% 2.25 -15.8%

Draw 37.3% 37.0% 2.70 +0.7%

Away win 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 40.0% 2.50 -12.3%

Over 3.5 7.1% 21.7% 4.60 -40.4%

BTTS 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 37% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.3%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Taian Tiankuang0.9

Nantong Haimen0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TAIAN TIANKUANG · PPG 1.75

NANTONG HAIMEN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=37.4%

Win probability 1X2

Taian Tiankuang (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -15.8%

Draw 37.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +0.7%

Nantong Haimen (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Taian Tiankuang face Nantong Haimen in China - League Two on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Taian Tiankuang a 37% chance, the draw 37% and Nantong Haimen 25%, so Taian Tiankuang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Taian Tiankuang and 0.6 for Nantong Haimen (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Taian Tiankuang are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Nantong Haimen. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Taian Tiankuang vs Nantong Haimen Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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