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Dalian Kewei vs Shandong T. B Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:00

Dalian Kewei

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Shandong T. B

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-040.4%0-119.1%0-24.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-18.3%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-03.8%2-11.8%2-20.4%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.6%3-10.3%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 40.8% 2.45 -19.0%

Draw 45.4% 37.0% 2.70 +22.6%

Away win 26.7% 35.7% 2.80 -15.1%

Over 2.5 23.8% 38.2% 2.62 -22.6%

Over 3.5 1.4% 21.5% 4.65 -56.1%

BTTS 29.3% 50.0% 2.00 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob29.3%

D 45% / xG 0.4-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 40.4%

#2 0–1 19.1%

#3 1–0 17.6%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 0–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Kewei0.4

Shandong T. B0.5

COMBINED 0.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 1.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN KEWEI · PPG 2.00

SHANDONG T. B · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Kewei (H) 27.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -19.0%

Draw 45.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +22.6%

Shandong T. B (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Kewei face Shandong T. B in China - League Two on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Kewei a 28% chance, the draw 45% and Shandong T. B 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.4 for Dalian Kewei and 0.5 for Shandong T. B (0.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Kewei are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Shandong T. B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Dalian Kewei vs Shandong T. B Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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