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Perth Glory B vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:00

Perth Glory B

PPG 0.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Knights

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.6%0-27.7%0-35.2%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.0%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.5% 35.7% 2.80 -17.2%

Draw 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 49.6% 47.6% 2.10 +4.2%

Over 2.5 60.2% 71.4% 1.40 -15.7%

Over 3.5 41.5% 52.4% 1.91 -20.7%

BTTS 58.8% 73.5% 1.36 -20.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.8%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth Glory B1.3

Western Knights2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH GLORY B · PPG 0.00

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Perth Glory B (H) 25.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -17.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Western Knights (A) 49.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth Glory B face Western Knights in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth Glory B a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Western Knights 50%, so Western Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Perth Glory B and 2.0 for Western Knights (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth Glory B are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Western Knights. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Perth Glory B vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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