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Armadale vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:00

Armadale

PPG 0.33 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Balcatta

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-01.9%1-13.7%1-23.5%1-32.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-03.1%2-15.9%2-25.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.3%3-16.3%3-26.0%3-33.8%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-111.3%4+-210.8%4+-36.8%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -10.1%

Away win 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Over 2.5 78.8% 75.2% 1.33 +4.8%

Over 3.5 75.0% 54.6% 1.83 +37.3%

BTTS 66.7% 74.1% 1.35 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 3.2-1.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.3%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 4–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Armadale3.2

Balcatta1.9

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 75.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARMADALE · PPG 0.33

BALCATTA · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Armadale (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.5%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.1%

Balcatta (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Armadale face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Armadale a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Balcatta 26%, so Armadale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Armadale and 1.9 for Balcatta (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Armadale are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.3%. This match finished 5-0.

Armadale vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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