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Launceston Utd vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 06:45

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.00 · HOME

1 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kingborough L.

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.8%0-24.7%0-35.1%0-4+9.7%1 1-01.3%1-14.1%1-26.8%1-37.5%1-4+14.2%2 2-00.9%2-13.0%2-25.0%2-35.5%2-4+10.4%3 3-00.4%3-11.5%3-22.4%3-32.7%3-4+5.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 4.3% 23.00 +116.6%

Draw 21.6% 6.7% 15.00 +134.4%

Away win 65.6% 95.2% 1.05 -31.1%

Over 2.5 75.3% 90.9% 1.10 -17.2%

Over 3.5 70.0% 78.1% 1.28 -10.4%

BTTS 63.0% 51.3% 1.95 +22.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-7

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob63.0%

A 66% / xG 1.5-3.3 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–2 6.8%

#3 1–4 6.2%

#4 2–3 5.5%

#5 0–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston Utd1.5

Kingborough L.3.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.3% · O3.5 PROB 70.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.00

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Launceston Utd (H) 12.8%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +116.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +134.4%

Kingborough L. (A) 65.6%

ODDS 1.05 · IMPLIED 95.2% EV -31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston Utd face Kingborough L. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston Utd a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Kingborough L. 66%, so Kingborough L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Launceston Utd and 3.3 for Kingborough L. (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston Utd are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Kingborough L.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +134.4%. This match finished 1-7.

Launceston Utd vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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