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Australia - Tasmania NPL
Regular Season - 8
Birch Avenue
Saturday, May 9, 2026
06:45
Launceston Utd
PPG 0.00
1-7
MISS
Kingborough L.
PPG 0.00
Draw· +134.4%
✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
40% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
12.8%
Odds: 23.00
EV: +116.6%
Draw
21.6%
Odds: 15.00
EV: +134.4%
Away
65.6%
Odds: 1.05
EV: -31.1%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
75.3%
Odds: 1.10
-17.2%
Over 3.5
70.0%
Odds: 1.28
-10.4%
BTTS
63.0%
Odds: 1.95
+22.9%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-3
✘
2nd
1-2
✘
3rd
1-4
✘
4th
2-3
✘
5th
0-3
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Launceston Utd
1.46
Kingborough L.
3.30
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
-17.2%
EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking:
excluded — EV is negative (-17.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
40%
NEUTRAL
No PPG data