Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Edgeworth E. vs Maitland

Edgeworth E. vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 06:30

Edgeworth E.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Maitland

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.2%0-22.2%0-31.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.7%1-15.5%1-25.6%1-33.8%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.0%2-34.7%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.8%3-15.7%3-25.8%3-33.9%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-16.4%4+-26.5%4+-34.4%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 51.3% 1.95 -7.4%

Draw 23.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.3%

Away win 29.5% 33.3% 3.00 -6.9%

Over 2.5 69.8% 66.7% 1.50 +4.7%

Over 3.5 65.9% 48.1% 2.08 +37.1%

BTTS 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.7%

H 48% / xG 2.5-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 3–2 5.8%

#5 3–1✓ 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edgeworth E.2.5

Maitland2.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 65.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EDGEWORTH E. · PPG 3.00

MAITLAND · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=47.5%

Win probability 1X2

Edgeworth E. (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.4%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.3%

Maitland (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edgeworth E. face Maitland in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edgeworth E. a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Maitland 30%, so Edgeworth E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Edgeworth E. and 2.0 for Maitland (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edgeworth E. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Maitland. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Edgeworth E. vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Northern NSW NPL Predictions