Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Adamstown R. vs Belmont Swansea

Adamstown R. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 06:30

Adamstown R.

PPG 0.20 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Belmont Swansea

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.3%0-25.0%0-35.1%0-4+8.3%1 1-01.6%1-14.9%1-27.4%1-37.5%1-4+12.3%2 2-01.2%2-13.6%2-25.5%2-35.6%2-4+9.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.8%3-22.7%3-32.8%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.1% 26.7% 3.75 -26.0%

Draw 21.0% 27.0% 3.70 -13.4%

Away win 63.9% 57.1% 1.75 +11.8%

Over 2.5 69.8% 69.4% 1.44 +0.5%

Over 3.5 66.3% 49.0% 2.04 +35.3%

BTTS 63.0% 69.4% 1.44 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 64% / xG 1.5-3.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–2 7.4%

#3 1–4 5.8%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown R.1.5

Belmont Swansea3.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 66.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 0.20

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown R. (H) 15.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -26.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.4%

Belmont Swansea (A) 63.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown R. face Belmont Swansea in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown R. a 15% chance, the draw 21% and Belmont Swansea 64%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Adamstown R. and 3.1 for Belmont Swansea (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown R. are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.33 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Adamstown R. vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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