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Australia - Northern NSW NPL
Regular Season - 11
Saturday, May 9, 2026
06:30
Adamstown R.
PPG 0.20
2-2
MISS
Belmont Swansea
PPG 2.33
Over3.5ยท +35.3%
๐ฏ STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
15.1%
Odds: 3.75
EV: -26.0%
Draw
21.0%
Odds: 3.70
EV: -13.4%
Away
63.9%
Odds: 1.75
EV: +11.8%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Draw โ
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
69.8%
Odds: 1.44
+0.5%
Over 3.5
66.3%
Odds: 2.04
+35.3%
BTTS
63.0%
Odds: 1.44
-9.3%
O2.5 OVER โ OVER โ
BTTS YES โ YES โ
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-3
โ
2nd
1-2
โ
3rd
1-4
โ
4th
1-1
โ
5th
2-3
โ
Expected Goals (xG)
Adamstown R.
1.48
Belmont Swansea
3.05
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+0.5%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+35.3%)
Verdict & Form
๐ฏ STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
95%
UPSET_VALUE
Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.20)