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Jeju Utd vs Seoul Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 05:00

Jeju Utd

PPG 0.83 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Seoul

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-120.0%0-213.4%0-36.0%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.4%1-111.2%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-02.4%2-13.2%2-22.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.0% 29.0% 3.45 -28.9%

Draw 29.4% 30.8% 3.25 -2.7%

Away win 55.6% 46.5% 2.15 +19.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Over 3.5 12.5% 23.8% 4.20 -28.5%

BTTS 45.9% 52.6% 1.90 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob45.9%

A 56% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.0%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 0–2 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju Utd0.6

Seoul1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UTD · PPG 0.83

SEOUL · PPG 2.67

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Jeju Utd (H) 15.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -28.9%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.7%

Seoul (A) 55.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju Utd face Seoul in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju Utd a 15% chance, the draw 29% and Seoul 56%, so Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Jeju Utd and 1.3 for Seoul (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju Utd are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 2.67 for Seoul. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Jeju Utd vs Seoul Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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