Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Riverside vs South East Utd

Riverside vs South East Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 04:30

Riverside

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

South East Utd

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.8%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.0%1-12.9%1-22.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.9%2-15.5%2-24.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-17.0%3-25.0%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-117.9%4+-212.9%4+-36.1%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 65.4% 1.53 -2.8%

Draw 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -7.8%

Away win 15.8% 21.7% 4.60 -16.4%

Over 2.5 78.8% 75.2% 1.33 +4.8%

Over 3.5 76.5% 57.1% 1.75 +33.9%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 64% / xG 3.8-1.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.0%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–1 5.5%

#4 5–1 5.0%

#5 3–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riverside3.8

South East Utd1.4

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 76.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVERSIDE · PPG 2.00

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.5%

Win probability 1X2

Riverside (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.8%

South East Utd (A) 15.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riverside face South East Utd in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riverside a 64% chance, the draw 21% and South East Utd 16%, so Riverside are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Riverside and 1.4 for South East Utd (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riverside are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for South East Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 5-0.

Riverside vs South East Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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