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Launceston vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 04:30

Launceston

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 8

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.1%0-24.2%0-33.9%0-4+5.4%1 1-01.9%1-15.3%1-27.4%1-36.8%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.7%2-14.6%2-26.4%2-35.9%2-4+8.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.6%3-23.7%3-33.4%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.7%4+-22.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 26.7% 3.75 -3.8%

Draw 20.4% 26.3% 3.80 -13.5%

Away win 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Over 2.5 69.8% 76.9% 1.30 -9.3%

Over 3.5 65.9% 57.1% 1.75 +15.3%

BTTS 66.6% 76.9% 1.30 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-8

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob66.6%

A 55% / xG 1.7-2.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–3 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.4%

#4 1–1 5.3%

#5 2–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston1.7

South Hobart2.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 65.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON · PPG 2.25

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Launceston (H) 25.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.8%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.5%

South Hobart (A) 54.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston face South Hobart in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston a 25% chance, the draw 20% and South Hobart 55%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Launceston and 2.8 for South Hobart (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 3.00 for South Hobart. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-8.

Launceston vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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