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Devonport vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 04:30

Devonport

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Glenorchy K.

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.7%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.9%1-12.7%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.7%2-15.3%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.9%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-027.5%4+-119.0%4+-26.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.3% 71.4% 1.40 +1.2%

Draw 20.1% 22.7% 4.40 -6.9%

Away win 7.6% 17.2% 5.80 -33.6%

Over 2.5 72.2% 75.2% 1.33 -4.0%

Over 3.5 67.3% 57.5% 1.74 +17.1%

BTTS 52.3% 69.4% 1.44 -24.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 72% / xG 3.9-0.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.0%

#2 4–0 9.8%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 5–0 7.6%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport3.9

Glenorchy K.0.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.2% · O3.5 PROB 67.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT · PPG 3.00

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Devonport (H) 72.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +1.2%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.9%

Glenorchy K. (A) 7.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport face Glenorchy K. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport a 72% chance, the draw 20% and Glenorchy K. 8%, so Devonport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Devonport and 0.7 for Glenorchy K. (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Glenorchy K.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Devonport vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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