Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Weston Bears vs Valentine

Weston Bears vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 04:00

Weston Bears

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Valentine

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.4%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-14.7%1-21.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.0%2-17.5%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-017.5%4+-114.5%4+-26.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.7% 85.5% 1.17 -17.3%

Draw 20.6% 13.3% 7.50 +32.7%

Away win 8.7% 10.0% 10.00 -7.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 75.2% 1.33 -17.9%

Over 3.5 57.6% 56.2% 1.78 +2.5%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 71% / xG 3.2-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.7%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears3.2

Valentine0.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.40

VALENTINE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 70.7%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -17.3%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +32.7%

Valentine (A) 8.7%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Valentine in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Valentine 9%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Weston Bears and 0.8 for Valentine (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Valentine. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Weston Bears vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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