Lexington vs Monterey Bay Prediction & Tips

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USA - USL Championship Group Stage Toyota Stadium Friday, May 8, 2026 23:30

Lexington PPG 1.00

3-1 MISS

Monterey Bay PPG 0.25

Away· +12.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.4%

Odds: 1.55 EV: -21.9%

Draw 27.3%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +0.6%

Away 22.3%

Odds: 5.40 EV: +12.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.8% Odds: 1.80 -17.6%

Over 3.5 16.4% Odds: 3.00 -30.5%

BTTS 48.2% Odds: 1.80 -13.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Lexington

1.47

Monterey Bay

0.65

Model SuggestionHome -21.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -21.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+12.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.25)