Today / USA - USL Championship / Lexington vs Monterey Bay

Lexington vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 23:30

Lexington

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Monterey Bay

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-17.8%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-111.5%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-18.4%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.3%3-14.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 64.5% 1.55 -21.9%

Draw 27.3% 27.0% 3.70 +0.6%

Away win 22.3% 18.5% 5.40 +12.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Over 3.5 16.4% 33.3% 3.00 -30.5%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 13.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington1.5

Monterey Bay0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.00

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -21.9%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.6%

Monterey Bay (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face Monterey Bay in USA - USL Championship on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Monterey Bay 22%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lexington and 0.6 for Monterey Bay (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Monterey Bay. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Lexington vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions