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R. Louisville W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 22:30

R. Louisville W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Portland T. W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 52% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+23.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.1%0-28.2%0-35.6%0-4+4.6%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.8%1-36.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.8%2-15.7%2-25.8%2-34.0%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.1%3-12.3%3-22.3%3-31.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 52.0% 47.6% 2.10 +9.2%

Over 2.5 60.2% 48.8% 2.05 +23.4%

Over 3.5 40.4% 27.0% 3.70 +49.5%

BTTS 58.8% 55.6% 1.80 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.8%

A 52% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Louisville W1.2

Portland T. W2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

R. LOUISVILLE W · PPG 2.00

PORTLAND T. W · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

R. Louisville W (H) 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Portland T. W (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Louisville W face Portland T. W in USA - NWSL Women on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Louisville W a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Portland T. W 52%, so Portland T. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for R. Louisville W and 2.0 for Portland T. W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Louisville W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Portland T. W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.5%. This match finished 3-1.

R. Louisville W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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