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Cajamarca vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 20:00

Cajamarca

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Cajamarca

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.1%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.0%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 47.6% 2.10 +3.5%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Over 3.5 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cajamarca1.8

FC Cajamarca1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.50

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Cajamarca (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +3.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

FC Cajamarca (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cajamarca face FC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cajamarca a 49% chance, the draw 26% and FC Cajamarca 25%, so Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cajamarca and 1.0 for FC Cajamarca (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cajamarca are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.14 for FC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Cajamarca vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions