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Atletico M. B vs Sabadell Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 19:15

Atletico M. B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

Sabadell

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-113.5%0-27.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.5%2-16.8%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 46.5% 2.15 -24.1%

Draw 29.0% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Away win 35.6% 29.4% 3.40 +21.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Over 3.5 15.0% 23.8% 4.20 -22.2%

BTTS 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico M. B1.0

Sabadell1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO M. B · PPG 2.00

SABADELL · PPG 1.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico M. B (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -24.1%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Sabadell (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico M. B face Sabadell in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico M. B a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Sabadell 36%, so Sabadell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atletico M. B and 1.0 for Sabadell (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico M. B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.76 for Sabadell. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 4-3.

Atletico M. B vs Sabadell Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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