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St. Patricks vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 19:00

St. Patricks

PPG 2.29 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Waterford

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.2%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.7%1-16.0%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.2%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-19.6%4+-23.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 82.0% 1.22 -17.3%

Draw 22.8% 17.9% 5.60 +16.6%

Away win 9.4% 6.9% 14.50 +21.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 66.7% 1.50 -9.7%

Over 3.5 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

BTTS 50.8% 50.0% 2.00 +1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.8%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Patricks2.7

Waterford0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 2.29

WATERFORD · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away POOR (0.14) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

St. Patricks (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -17.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +16.6%

Waterford (A) 9.4%

ODDS 14.50 · IMPLIED 6.9% EV +21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Patricks face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Patricks a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Waterford 9%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for St. Patricks and 0.6 for Waterford (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Patricks are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.14 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 4-1.

St. Patricks vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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