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Finn Harps vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kerry

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-111.5%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.1%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-17.8%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 39.7% 2.52 +5.3%

Draw 30.4% 31.7% 3.15 -4.2%

Away win 27.8% 35.5% 2.82 -13.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 3.5 16.3% 26.0% 3.85 -22.4%

BTTS 50.8% 55.6% 1.80 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.8%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0✓ 14.1%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps1.2

Kerry0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.29

KERRY · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=41.8%

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +5.3%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.2%

Kerry (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Kerry 28%, so Finn Harps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Finn Harps and 0.9 for Kerry (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.43 for Kerry. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Finn Harps vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions