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Ireland - First Division Friday, May 8, 2026 18:45 
Finn Harps PPG 1.29 
Kerry PPG 0.43
Ireland - First Division Friday, May 8, 2026 18:45 Finn Harps PPG 1.291-0 HIT CS3
Kerry PPG 0.43Home· +5.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 45.8% Odds: 2.10 -3.8%
Over 3.5 16.3% Odds: 3.85 -22.4%
BTTS 50.8% Odds: 1.80 -8.6%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✔
4th 0-1 ✘
5th 2-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Finn Harps 1.16
Kerry 0.94
Model Suggestion
BTTS -8.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+5.3%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+5.3%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=41.8%