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Athlone Town vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.4%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-111.7%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 51.0% 1.96 -0.0%

Draw 26.4% 29.9% 3.35 -6.9%

Away win 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Over 3.5 21.9% 29.0% 3.45 -14.7%

BTTS 51.0% 56.5% 1.77 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0✓ 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town1.6

Treaty Utd0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 2.00

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -0.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.9%

Treaty Utd (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Treaty Utd 23%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athlone Town and 0.8 for Treaty Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Treaty Utd. This match finished 0-0.

Athlone Town vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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