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Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 16 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Shelbourne

PPG 0.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.0%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.2%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.7%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 67.6% 1.48 -28.1%

Draw 26.2% 23.8% 4.20 +6.0%

Away win 25.2% 15.6% 6.40 +36.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 54.6% 1.83 -14.9%

Over 3.5 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

BTTS 52.3% 51.8% 1.93 +0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0✓ 8.1%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne1.5

Sligo Rovers1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 0.43

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.43), Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -28.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.0%

Sligo Rovers (A) 25.2%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +36.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Sligo Rovers 25%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Shelbourne and 1.0 for Sligo Rovers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.57 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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