Today / Ireland - Premier Division / Galway Utd vs Shamrock Rovers

Galway Utd vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 16 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Galway Utd

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-112.3%0-28.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.1%1-112.7%1-28.9%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 27.4% 3.65 +0.9%

Draw 28.4% 28.6% 3.50 -0.4%

Away win 43.8% 50.8% 1.97 -13.7%

Over 2.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Over 3.5 22.6% 28.2% 3.55 -11.9%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway Utd1.0

Shamrock Rovers1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.83

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Galway Utd (H) 27.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.9%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.4%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 43.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway Utd face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway Utd a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Shamrock Rovers 44%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Galway Utd and 1.4 for Shamrock Rovers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway Utd are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.29 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Galway Utd vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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