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Dundalk vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 16 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bohemians

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.5%0-25.9%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-18.2%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.4%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 38.8% 2.58 +0.4%

Draw 29.5% 29.0% 3.45 +1.1%

Away win 31.6% 39.2% 2.55 -19.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Over 3.5 21.5% 30.8% 3.25 -18.1%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk1.2

Bohemians1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 2.00

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +0.4%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.1%

Bohemians (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Bohemians 32%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dundalk and 1.1 for Bohemians (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.57 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Dundalk vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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