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Drogheda Utd vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 16 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Derry City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.9%0-27.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 29.9% 3.35 +19.6%

Draw 28.4% 30.8% 3.25 -4.6%

Away win 35.9% 46.5% 2.15 -22.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Over 3.5 21.0% 26.3% 3.80 -12.1%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–0✓ 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.1

Derry City1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.14

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +19.6%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.6%

Derry City (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Derry City 36%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Drogheda Utd and 1.2 for Derry City (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Drogheda Utd vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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