Drogheda Utd vs Derry City Prediction & Tips

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Ireland - Premier Division Regular Season - 16 Weavers Park· Drogheda Friday, May 8, 2026 18:45

Drogheda Utd PPG 1.14

1-0 HIT CS4

Derry City PPG 1.00

Home· +19.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.7%

Odds: 3.35 EV: +19.6%

Draw 28.4%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -4.6%

Away 35.9%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -22.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 2.10 -2.4%

Over 3.5 21.0% Odds: 3.80 -12.1%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.83 -4.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✔

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Drogheda Utd

1.11

Derry City

1.24

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+19.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 46.6%

Bet Hit 79% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.00)