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Torino vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Torino

PPG 1.41 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sassuolo

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-111.1%0-27.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.7%1-112.8%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.6%2-17.4%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 40.7% 2.46 -11.2%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 36.4% 35.2% 2.84 +3.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 54.6% 1.83 -14.9%

Over 3.5 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

BTTS 52.8% 61.7% 1.62 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.8%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torino1.2

Sassuolo1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TORINO · PPG 1.41

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Torino (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -11.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

Sassuolo (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torino face Sassuolo in Italy - Serie A on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torino a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Sassuolo 36%, so Sassuolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Torino and 1.3 for Sassuolo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torino are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.18 for Sassuolo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Torino vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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