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Cadiz vs Deportivo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 39 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Cadiz

PPG 1.05 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Deportivo

PPG 1.74 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-113.8%0-210.3%0-35.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.7%2-15.5%2-24.1%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

Draw 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

Away win 46.3% 50.0% 2.00 -7.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Over 3.5 21.7% 29.4% 3.40 -15.7%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.3%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1✓ 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 0–2 10.3%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cadiz0.9

Deportivo1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CADIZ · PPG 1.05

DEPORTIVO · PPG 1.74

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.74) vs Home AVERAGE (1.05)

Win probability 1X2

Cadiz (H) 24.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.0%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -0.6%

Deportivo (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cadiz face Deportivo in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cadiz a 25% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo 46%, so Deportivo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cadiz and 1.5 for Deportivo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cadiz are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 1.74 for Deportivo. This match finished 0-1.

Cadiz vs Deportivo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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