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Rijeka vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 34 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:00

Rijeka

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vukovar

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.6%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-110.4%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.5%3-16.0%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 75.2% 1.33 -32.2%

Draw 26.4% 22.7% 4.40 +9.7%

Away win 22.6% 11.1% 9.00 +62.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Over 3.5 27.3% 38.5% 2.60 -17.4%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rijeka1.9

Vukovar0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RIJEKA · PPG 1.63

VUKOVAR · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Rijeka (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -32.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +9.7%

Vukovar (A) 22.6%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +62.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rijeka face Vukovar in Croatia - HNL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rijeka a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Vukovar 23%, so Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rijeka and 0.8 for Vukovar (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rijeka are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.44 for Vukovar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +62.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Rijeka vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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