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SSVg Velbert vs Paderborn B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:30

SSVg Velbert

PPG 0.38 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Paderborn B

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.38) vs Away POOR (0.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-111.3%0-210.0%0-35.9%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.2%1-111.1%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.1%2-15.4%2-24.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 52.0% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.8% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSVg Velbert1.0

Paderborn B1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SSVG VELBERT · PPG 0.38

PADERBORN B · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.38) vs Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

SSVg Velbert (H) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paderborn B (A) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSVg Velbert face Paderborn B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSVg Velbert a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Paderborn B 52%, so Paderborn B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for SSVg Velbert and 1.8 for Paderborn B (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSVg Velbert are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.81 for Paderborn B. This match finished 1-3.

SSVg Velbert vs Paderborn B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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