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Oberwart vs Favoritner AC Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 30 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:30

Oberwart

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Favoritner AC

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.6%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.7%1-16.9%1-23.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.8%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-110.1%4+-25.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 61.7% 1.62 -3.6%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 19.3% 25.0% 4.00 -13.7%

Over 2.5 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Over 3.5 50.2% 44.4% 2.25 +13.0%

BTTS 58.8% 65.8% 1.52 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.8%

H 60% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.8%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oberwart2.6

Favoritner AC1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERWART · PPG 2.00

FAVORITNER AC · PPG 0.62

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=59.5%

Win probability 1X2

Oberwart (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -3.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Favoritner AC (A) 19.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oberwart face Favoritner AC in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oberwart a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Favoritner AC 19%, so Oberwart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Oberwart and 1.0 for Favoritner AC (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oberwart are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.62 for Favoritner AC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Oberwart vs Favoritner AC Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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