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Cartagena vs Alcorcon Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Cartagena

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Alcorcon

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-114.6%0-25.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-112.8%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.7%2-15.6%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.6%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 43.5% 2.30 -12.6%

Draw 35.7% 34.7% 2.88 +2.8%

Away win 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 42.0% 2.38 -16.5%

Over 3.5 8.0% 23.1% 4.33 -39.2%

BTTS 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 14.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cartagena0.9

Alcorcon0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CARTAGENA · PPG 2.00

ALCORCON · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Cartagena (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -12.6%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.8%

Alcorcon (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cartagena face Alcorcon in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cartagena a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Alcorcon 26%, so Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cartagena and 0.7 for Alcorcon (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cartagena are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.24 for Alcorcon. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Cartagena vs Alcorcon Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions