Today / Norway - Eliteserien / HamKam vs Valerenga

HamKam vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 8 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

HamKam

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valerenga

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.0%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.2%1-18.6%1-25.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.9%3-16.7%3-24.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-16.1%4+-24.2%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 37.7% 2.65 +30.6%

Draw 25.6% 27.8% 3.60 -4.7%

Away win 25.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.9%

Over 2.5 61.7% 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Over 3.5 47.5% 39.2% 2.55 +21.1%

BTTS 59.2% 66.7% 1.50 -11.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.2%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HamKam2.2

Valerenga1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMKAM · PPG 2.25

VALERENGA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

HamKam (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +30.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.7%

Valerenga (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

HamKam face Valerenga in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HamKam a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Valerenga 25%, so HamKam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for HamKam and 1.4 for Valerenga (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HamKam are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Valerenga. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 1-0.

HamKam vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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