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Buchbach vs Aschaffenburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Buchbach

PPG 1.38 · HOME

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aschaffenburg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.2%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-110.0%1-26.2%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.0%3-16.3%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchbach1.9

Aschaffenburg1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHBACH · PPG 1.38

ASCHAFFENBURG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Buchbach (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aschaffenburg (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchbach face Aschaffenburg in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchbach a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Aschaffenburg 25%, so Buchbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Buchbach and 1.2 for Aschaffenburg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchbach are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Aschaffenburg. This match finished 6-3.

Buchbach vs Aschaffenburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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