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Chemie Leipzig vs Eilenburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Chemie Leipzig

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eilenburg

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-110.8%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-16.0%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 58.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.5% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chemie Leipzig1.8

Eilenburg1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEMIE LEIPZIG · PPG 1.38

EILENBURG · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Chemie Leipzig (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eilenburg (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chemie Leipzig face Eilenburg in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chemie Leipzig a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Eilenburg 25%, so Chemie Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chemie Leipzig and 1.1 for Eilenburg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chemie Leipzig are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.44 for Eilenburg. This match finished 3-2.

Chemie Leipzig vs Eilenburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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