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Aalborg BK vs Middelfart Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 29 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Aalborg BK

PPG 1.79 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Middelfart

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=63.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.5%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-16.8%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.3%2-19.0%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.0%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-110.2%4+-24.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 3–0 9.1%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalborg BK2.7

Middelfart0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AALBORG BK · PPG 1.79

MIDDELFART · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=63.8%

Win probability 1X2

Aalborg BK (H) 63.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Middelfart (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalborg BK face Middelfart in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalborg BK a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Middelfart 15%, so Aalborg BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Aalborg BK and 0.9 for Middelfart (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalborg BK are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.36 for Middelfart. This match finished 1-3.

Aalborg BK vs Middelfart Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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