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Neusiedl vs Union Mauer Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 30 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Neusiedl

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Union Mauer

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.6%0-25.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.0%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.4%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.9%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

Draw 26.3% 26.7% 3.75 -0.8%

Away win 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

Over 2.5 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Over 3.5 30.1% 41.5% 2.41 -27.5%

BTTS 54.6% 68.0% 1.47 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neusiedl1.4

Union Mauer1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEUSIEDL · PPG 1.00

UNION MAUER · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Neusiedl (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.8%

Union Mauer (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neusiedl face Union Mauer in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neusiedl a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Union Mauer 36%, so Neusiedl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Neusiedl and 1.4 for Union Mauer (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neusiedl are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.46 for Union Mauer. This match finished 3-2.

Neusiedl vs Union Mauer Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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