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Nurnberg W vs SGS Essen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:30

Nurnberg W

PPG 0.83 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SGS Essen W

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.6%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.6%1-19.2%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 45.5% 2.20 +8.5%

Draw 25.6% 28.2% 3.55 -5.5%

Away win 25.1% 35.7% 2.80 -17.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Over 3.5 44.7% 40.0% 2.50 +11.8%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nurnberg W2.0

SGS Essen W1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NURNBERG W · PPG 0.83

SGS ESSEN W · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.58)

Win probability 1X2

Nurnberg W (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.5%

SGS Essen W (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nurnberg W face SGS Essen W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nurnberg W a 49% chance, the draw 26% and SGS Essen W 25%, so Nurnberg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nurnberg W and 1.4 for SGS Essen W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nurnberg W are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.58 for SGS Essen W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Nurnberg W vs SGS Essen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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