Today / Croatia - First NL / Karlovac vs Rudes

Karlovac vs Rudes Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 15:45

Karlovac

PPG 1.87 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rudes

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.8%0-26.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.9%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.8%2-17.1%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.4%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 20.0% 5.00 +81.5%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 35.5% 60.6% 1.65 -41.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Over 3.5 16.2% 25.0% 4.00 -21.1%

BTTS 50.8% 51.3% 1.95 -0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.8%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlovac1.1

Rudes1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLOVAC · PPG 1.87

RUDES · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Karlovac (H) 36.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +81.5%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Rudes (A) 35.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlovac face Rudes in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlovac a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Rudes 36%, so Karlovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Karlovac and 1.0 for Rudes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlovac are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.43 for Rudes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +81.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Karlovac vs Rudes Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions