Today / Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa / Sabah vs Kapaz

Sabah vs Kapaz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 15:30

Sabah

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kapaz

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-11.6%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.0%1-14.7%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.4%2-17.0%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-020.7%4+-110.7%4+-22.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.2% 80.0% 1.25 -11.0%

Draw 20.8% 20.8% 4.80 -0.1%

Away win 8.0% 10.3% 9.75 -13.2%

Over 2.5 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Over 3.5 46.3% 43.5% 2.30 +6.5%

BTTS 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.2%

H 71% / xG 3.0-0.5 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 3–0 13.3%

#3 4–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabah3.0

Kapaz0.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SABAH · PPG 2.40

KAPAZ · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sabah (H) 71.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -11.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.1%

Kapaz (A) 8.0%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabah face Kapaz in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabah a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Kapaz 8%, so Sabah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Sabah and 0.5 for Kapaz (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabah are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.73 for Kapaz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Sabah vs Kapaz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Predictions