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Livyi Bereh vs UCSA Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Matchday 27 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 13:00

Livyi Bereh

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

UCSA

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 66% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-17.8%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-111.5%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.5%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.4%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 72.5% 1.38 -30.4%

Draw 27.2% 24.4% 4.10 +6.9%

Away win 22.4% 14.3% 7.00 +34.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 16.7% 32.8% 3.05 -29.4%

BTTS 48.2% 45.9% 2.18 +5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 13.0%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Livyi Bereh1.5

UCSA0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVYI BEREH · PPG 2.31

UCSA · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Livyi Bereh (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -30.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +6.9%

UCSA (A) 22.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Livyi Bereh face UCSA in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Livyi Bereh a 50% chance, the draw 27% and UCSA 22%, so Livyi Bereh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Livyi Bereh and 0.7 for UCSA (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Livyi Bereh are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.23 for UCSA. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Livyi Bereh vs UCSA Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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