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PSBS Biak N. vs Dewa Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 12:00

PSBS Biak N.

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dewa Utd

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-111.8%0-210.8%0-36.5%0-4+4.5%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.8%1-36.0%1-4+4.1%2 2-02.7%2-14.9%2-24.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.5% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 54.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob52.3%

A 54% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 0–2 10.8%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSBS Biak N.0.9

Dewa Utd1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PSBS BIAK N. · PPG 0.80

DEWA UTD · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

PSBS Biak N. (H) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dewa Utd (A) 54.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

PSBS Biak N. face Dewa Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSBS Biak N. a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Dewa Utd 54%, so Dewa Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for PSBS Biak N. and 1.8 for Dewa Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSBS Biak N. are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.40 for Dewa Utd. This match finished 0-5.

PSBS Biak N. vs Dewa Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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