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Perth SC vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 11:00

Perth SC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fremantle City

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.7%0-21.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-02.3%1-14.7%1-24.7%1-33.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.2%2-16.4%2-26.5%2-34.4%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.9%3-15.9%3-26.0%3-34.1%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.9%4+-28.1%4+-35.5%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 26.5% — — —

Over 2.5 76.8% — — —

Over 3.5 70.4% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.7%

H 51% / xG 2.8-2.0 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.5%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 3–2 6.0%

#4 3–1 5.9%

#5 1–1✓ 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth SC2.8

Fremantle City2.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.8% · O3.5 PROB 70.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH SC · PPG 2.00

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Perth SC (H) 50.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fremantle City (A) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth SC face Fremantle City in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth SC a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Fremantle City 27%, so Perth SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Perth SC and 2.0 for Fremantle City (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth SC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Fremantle City. This match finished 1-1.

Perth SC vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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