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Perth RedStar vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 11:00

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sorrento

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.3%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.9%1-113.1%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-18.3%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.3% — — —

BTTS 51.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth RedStar1.3

Sorrento0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.20

SORRENTO · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Perth RedStar (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sorrento (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth RedStar face Sorrento in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth RedStar a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Sorrento 26%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Perth RedStar and 0.9 for Sorrento (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth RedStar are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.33 for Sorrento. This match finished 4-1.

Perth RedStar vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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